Monday, August 22, 2011 - 10:42 AM

Libya is not an important country. It's important to its people and in its region. It's a symbol and it's an indicator. But in a geopolitical sense, it belongs to that list of places like North Korea, Cuba, and Afghanistan that only have gained attention over the years as the platforms of dangerous men. Libya without Qaddafi is unlikely to make headlines for long … unless, yet again, an extremist or an extremist group uses it as a vehicle for their own warped ambitions.
We should not, therefore, be unhappy should Libya ultimately fade from the radar. That would be an encouraging sign. And there are many truly important issues to which we ought to devote our attentions. But we can't allow ourselves to believe that what is happening in Tripoli is the endgame in that country or allow ourselves the luxury of letting our attention drift away as soon as the celebrations stop.
To understand why, we need only ask what lessons this recent chapter in Libya's history holds, what conclusions we may draw, and what implications it may have for the world at large.
First, the greatest immediate benefit from the fall of the Qaddafi regime will be the departure of Qaddafi himself, a fundamentally evil man who has been responsible for much suffering, both for his own people and for the victims of the terrorism he supported. Sealing his fate once and for all, securing his inability to again influence world, regional, or national affairs, is a necessary precondition to regarding this chapter as having come to a satisfactory conclusion.
Second, as the situations in Egypt and Tunisia remind us, we should resist the impulse to become too intoxicated with the natural high afforded by the celebrations that come with the end of brutal, autocratic regimes. Just as it has taken longer than many would have liked to bring down Qaddafi, it will be many months or years before we know the character of the regime that will succeed him, and a happy ending to this story is far from being assured.
Third, as a consequence, we must hope that the patience and perspective shown by the international coalition that has supported the efforts of the Libyan rebels is maintained. Just as President Obama, NATO, and regional leaders who have helped orchestrate the campaign that is now culminating in Tripoli deserve credit for methodically pursuing their goals, we must hope that they will be willing to work to ensure that the legitimate advocates of democracy, pluralism, and tolerance among the leaders of the opposition successful take control of the new regime and that they receive what technical support they need. Libya, as the source of 2 percent of the world's oil, can fund its own recovery if allowed to reintegrate with the global economy. By the same token, the international coalition must remain vigilant that extremists are not able to hijack or pervert the outcome of this revolution.
Fourth, we must hope that this triumph, should it be consolidated, reinvigorates the world's best hopes for this Arab Spring that has continued on into an Arab Summer in which the promise of positive change endures. That means a redoubled international effort to ensure the Assad regime in Syria is also consigned to the dustbin of history in which we find the Egyptian, Tunisian, and, we trust, the Libyan dictators of the past several decades. It also, just as importantly, means that the international community should provide significant but appropriately conditional support for new governments should they promote open societies. Political success stories in these changing societies will be impossible without concurrent economic successes, the creation of opportunity for the young and those who have been victimized by greedy, corrupt systems that have seen leaders and cronies exploit their people for years.
Fifth, the willingness of the Obama administration to step back and let France and Britain lead the initiative in Libya has been a sign of the strength and wisdom of the U.S. president rather than of weakness. America's response to the first phases of this crisis was sloppy, and the Obama team's messages were conflicting to the point of incoherence for weeks. But, Obama has successfully balanced a recognition of the limitations of U.S. military resources and of American political will to get deeply involved in another Middle East war with a desire to remain relevant. He chose -- boldly, given the American bias toward control -- to actually try to find another path, a multilateral, cooperative approach in which the U.S. could influence outcomes, support our interests, but allow others to play a more central role. In so doing, he presaged what must be a new approach by the United States in world affairs. It was not perfect, not neat, but then again, inventing new approaches seldom is those things.
America is entering a new era in its foreign policy. It will be marked not by the end of U.S. leadership but by a change in U.S. leadership. This will naturally require others to step up, and that in turn will demand real changes not only within national foreign policies but also within institutional structures like those of NATO and the EU that are not yet robust enough for the new roles they must play, not strong enough to swiftly produce coherent policies or decisive collective action. The actions of the Sarkozy and Cameron governments in this instance have been especially helpful -- if not without complications and missteps -- in moving the Western alliance in that direction.
For the foreseeable future, a primary focus of that evolving alliance and a changing, more constrained, more multilateralist America will be the Middle East, still roiling as it is, still dangerous with calcified, out-of-touch governments, ancient hatreds, and bad actors. As the reflections on the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union remind us, revolutions start fast but take decades to reveal their true character.
It is far too early to know whether the events of this year in Tunis, Cairo, Tripoli, or Damascus and Hama will be seen as an opening to a period of sweeping, constructive changes in the region or whether it will leave us and more importantly the people of these countries frustrated. While the major changes to take place are the responsibility of those people, we must understand that it can't happen without the effective ongoing involvement of the world's leading countries. And that's the fascinating, challenging question that underlies all of what is happening and will happen: How can a changing Western alliance work with a changing regional power structure to produce the enduring political and economic changes the people of the Middle East crave and deserve?
"we need only ask what lessons this recent chapter in Libya's history holds, what conclusions we may draw, and what implications it may have for the world at large. . . America is entering a new era in its foreign policy. This will naturally require others to step up, and that in turn will demand real changes not only within national foreign policies but also within institutional structures like those of NATO and the EU that are not yet robust enough for the new roles they must play, not strong enough to swiftly produce coherent policies or decisive collective action."
The use of "we" and "us" in the article recalls the old joke about the lone ranger:
The Lone Ranger and Tonto are surrounded by hostile Indians. Lone Ranger says something like, "It looks like we are going to die." and Tonto replies, 'What you mean, "we," Kemo Sabe?'.
Is the United States really prepared to negotiate a common foreign policy with other countries, and stick to it? This would certainly ease tensions and help global peacekeeping.
For comment on global public goods, see The Shape of the Global Economy Will Fundamentally Change.
I refer to the opening "Libya is not an important country. It's important to its people and in its region. It's a symbol and it's an indicator. But in a geopolitical sense, it belongs to that list of places like North Korea, Cuba, and Afghanistan that only have gained attention over the years as the platforms of dangerous men."
North Korea offers the world little. Similarly, Cuba and Afghanistan. Libya on the other -- important -- hand, offers the world one of the most valuable supplies of high-grade sweet crude oil -- 1.3 million barrels a day in February before this year's revolution broke out. Gas pumps in American have been affected by the current upheaval. The nation has also had a major effect on Arab and other regional politics for decades -- a turbulent effect.
Gaddafi's chief danger to the world, exactly like Saddam Hussein's, was established soon after the earlier revolution about 42 years ago -- he dangerously expelled robber oil companies and reorganized his nation's oil industry so as to offer a fairer share of the income to the people of his nation. This was much to the benefit of the people of Libya and Iraq. Both Arab leaders knew this was a dangerous course to follow. The CIA s in the 1950s had uprooted the Iranian government that had done the same thing.
New millennium, the old dictators are passing, the oil companies are still around. The New York Times reports they are already jockeying for their parts in the oil industry under the new national management. Libya is not all that unimportant.
This is not the endgame in Libya:
Well, there is an end game in Libya - under the corrects dialectics which are missing from this article. Firstly, Libya cannot be viewed with the lenses of the Western social standards and democratic values because it is still mostly a tribal society with Islamic values, culture and tradition. Secondly, its oil matters to us - much more now that we need lower oil prices to resuscitate our wobbly economy. Thirdly, helping the Libyans depose a brutal despot gives us a small grain of credibility in the Arab world - since we sustain in power other Arab autocrats who are friendly to us. But here the author conveniently omits them, and re-hashes the standard U.S. anti-Syrian diatribe while omitting Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, countries ruled by Gadhafi-styled kings. Plus the author rehashes the typical U.S. Islamist fears, a.k.a. Al Qaeda highjacking the Libyan Revolution,
which insinuates a possible U.S. intervention to prevent it -if! And that is an insidious insinuation to sow doubts on the Libyan rebels that I consider unethical, and a rehash of think tanks views funded by the U.S. government to shoe-shine questionable foreign policy objectives. As a whole, the article is just the same ideas shuffled again in scope in the next paragraph, and then re-shuffled again later for angle or focus in the following paragraph. There is an excessive repetition and too much redundancy which dilute its substance.
There is an end game in Libya, and that end game is a government "by the people of Libya, for the people of Libya. The Libyans insisted that they wanted only military help from the West - not Western "boots" (troops) on the ground, because they knew that -if allowed in - Western boots would not have withdrawn until they had secured a Western controlled puppet regime after Gadhafis overthrow - under the pretext of securing democracy in Libya. And that is an indication that Libyans would strive to form a nationalist government. And in such a government, the NTC will be forced to consult with all the rebels, and exercise its authority with consent until a constitution and a governing body is elected. Of course this will start once Gadhafi and his remnant army are wiped out.
Of course there is the typical expression of reservation by some foreign governments now which strive to appoint their own lackeys in key post in the post Gadhafi administration. And on this struggle for foreign control, the Al Qaeda scarecrow card will be on the table in the pushing and shoving that will follow Gadhafi's fall until things settle down. But the Libyans know clearly what the end game is, and the theories of outsiders on what the end game is or isn't doesn't really matter. It is their country, not ours!
Nikos Retsos, retired professor
Gaddafi's chief danger to the world, exactly like Saddam Hussein's, was established soon after the earlier revolution about 42 years ago -- he dangerously expelled robber oil companies and reorganized his vacationtips nation's oil industry so as to offer a fairer share of the income to the people of his nation.
Yes, that's right, for almost two full years, through tough times, the United States has been keeping up with a very aggressive pace that you, Mr. President, targeted during your State of the Union. Ex-Im Bank has not only hit a record of $24.5 billion in finance authorizations today -- 70 percent higher than it was in 2008.Richard from paint zoom on sale
Libya is not an important country? i don't agree
i i don't agree when said that Libya is not an important country. It's important to its people and in its region. It's a symbol and it's an indicator. But in a geopolitical sense, it belongs to that list of places like North Korea, Cuba, and Afghanistan that only have gained attention over the years as the platforms of dangerous men.
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David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.
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