The two things we know about a Middle East in flux, and what they mean for Israel

Posted By David Rothkopf Tuesday, April 26, 2011 - 9:48 PM Share

A Pew Poll released this week shows that more than half of all Egyptians would like to see the peace treaty with Israel annulled. Almost two-thirds indicated that they thought that the country's laws should be based on the Koran and about half felt it was "very important" that religious parties be part of the next government. It is further evidence that Egypt's push for democracy has been fueled as much by its decades-long conservative shift as it has been by its decades long exploitation by the Mubarak regime. It is a reminder that small-"l" political liberalism does not always beget the big-"L" Liberalism that many in the west had been hoping for.

It is also a reminder that for all the constant attention that the wave of unrest has attracted in the Middle East, we know as little or less today about what will happen next in Egypt or in Libya or in Tunisia or Yemen or in Syria or anywhere else in the region as we did when all this started in January. That's almost true anyway. We know two things. One: This is a watershed in the history of the region. And two: while we can't say who is likely to prevail, we can say with a fairly high degree of certainty that the governments in each of the affected countries in the region will be considerably weaker going forward.

Governments that change will -- whether they embrace democracy or successor autocracies -- be weaker than the strongmen they succeeded. Governments that hang on will be battered and weakened and made permanently uneasy by the unrest.

This will make it harder to get things done in the region, to hammer out deals with the West except those that involve essentially one-way hand-outs. But tough as it may be for Western diplomats, it is going to be much tougher for the Israelis.

Weak governments must carefully cultivate and maintain political bases. And in none of these countries is perceived softness or even openness to Israel seen as a political plus. Populist impulses will be strong through these impacted governments and as the Egypt poll illustrates, one thing almost certain to play well will be a renewed hard-line toward Israel.

This comes at a tough moment for the Israelis. Not only has the strategic landscape been remade around them, not only has the Arab Spring distracted the world from the potential threat posed by the Iranian nuclear program about which the Israelis have great concerns, but looming is the U.N. vote in September on Palestinian statehood. It is not only increasingly clear that the vast majority of the world's nations side with the Palestinians but even the Israeli's staunchest defenders like the United States have come to the conclusion internally that it is not a question of "if" but "how" and not a question of "when" but "how soon can it happen?"

For months the Netanyahu administration has been internally debating about how to deal with this and with every passing week, their conclusions of the past week are overtaken by new events. The current hubbub about whether or not Netanyahu will or should make a major address to the U.S. Congress is linked to an increasingly urgent sense by many in the Israeli government that Netanyahu needs to get out ahead of this Palestinian story and offer his own formula for peace. The Palestinians have been as deft diplomatically as they have been inept governing at home or managing their internal divisions. They are the ones almost universally perceived to be "on the side of history", to use one of the more popular phrases of the moment. Even the strong support for many Israelis for a Palestinian state was demonstrated at last week's Tel Aviv demonstration that involved the participation of 21 Israel Prize winners.

The situation could hardly be more difficult for Netanyahu. The pressure globally, in the region and at home is growing. His cabinet is battered by internal issues including the growing legal mess in which his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman finds himself. Israel's "best friend," the United States, is undergoing a sea-change in its views which is manifest in internal divisions within the administration about how to manage just about each and every issue pertaining to the Middle East... including the Israel-Palestine question.

Netanyahu has just weeks, at most a couple months, to determine the fate of his administration. Old stratagems won't work. Old rhetoric will fall dead to the ground before it reaches the ears of a single listener. Continuing to pursue without amendment his recent stance on settlements is a non-starter and effective will assure the world continues on its course to cut Israel as much as possible from this discussion about an issue that is central to its fate. To get ahead of the issue he must be seen to be offering a fair and reasonable plan to swiftly put into place a Palestinian state that has a chance of succeeding economically, socially and politically. Or at least he must offer a plan for how Israel will enable such a transformation. Naturally, he will be expected to argue in Israel's self-interest. But he must recognize that unless he seen to be taking a truly new tack, truly embracing the inevitable, his few friends in the world -- including the United States-- will find it very, very difficult to do anything but treat him as though he were already a historical relic, unsuited for the issues and the realities of the region today.

EXPLORE:ISRAEL/PALESTINE
 

DR.SPARK

12:56 PM ET

April 27, 2011

Time is running out

Netanyahu has not weeks but days if not hours left to make important,breath stopping decisions. Such decisions which will guarantee the existence of a people which already several times over the last 2 000 years( not to speak about the time before) has been threatened in its own existence. However for the first time an Israeli Prime Minister in the Face of Mr. Netanyahu is facing daily growing threat to the very existence of Israel as a state. Events in the Middle East and North Africa, certainly in a few days also in other parts of those Regions, show, that it was very unwise to wait for more then 30 years after the Camp David accords in order to look for a future oriented ever lasting settlement between Arabs and Israelis. The staunches supporters of peace with Israel in the arab world where either killed, or as recently shown simply removed from the political scene. That happened under the watchful eye of the US administration and the EU governments. How ever not one of those supporting enteties listend to the open assessment of Netanyahu and ruling circles on occuring changes in Egypt and beyond, as well as of realistically oriented scholars, namely changes in Egypt and the loss of a major supporter as President Mubarak, can and will change the security requirements and stand of the State of Israel, in the Middle East. Today the question has already developed further:
The Camp David accord as a matter of fact does not exist any more! Peace for Israel has to be renegotiated on all fronts... But with whom? In the next few years instability will obviously govern the Middle East and North Africa. Israel must find its own equilibrium and decide which way it has to go. The EU invested millions in North Africa since the early 90 , made assotiation agreements with Egypt, Tunisia, Marocco, Algier, tried to develop the economies of those states and indeed on the markets in France, Benelux Germany, and most recently also in Eastern Europe, you will find Tomatoes, Pepers, Oranges or Potatoes from North Africa, but the benefit obviously of those millions invested remained in the Pocket of few. With other words, since the revolutionary of its time Camp David accords, nothing has been made or achieved by the west after Jimmy Carter to substantiate the acievements of the Camp Davd accords. On the contrary poverty and surpression was widespread and tolerated by the West all over North Africa and the Middle East. 30 years where lost for the cause of peace between Arab and Israelis, by keeping the results of only one agreement ( between Egypt and Israel) and permitting other "allies" ( Saudi Arabia,OIC,etc.) among many other mistakes to work openly against peace between Arabs and Israelis. The Nations of North Africa and the Middle East thorn not only by unemployment, poverty,subjugation and tyrannic rule of Dictators,but also by Islamic fundamentalism, lack of any tolerance against the Jewish neighbor, as well as lack of any future oriented enlightenment, have been unfortunately forgotten not only by the west, but first and foremost mainly by its former colonial rulers. It is forgotten that the German Nazis supported various Islamic Circles in order to curb the british influence in the Middle East. A Bosnian Muslim become a guest of honor of the German Nazi state, as the highest Islamic Mufti in Baghdad in thelate 1930's. Forgotten is that Russia voted for the creation of the Israeli state at the United Nations. Forgotten is that the Arab Nations where the only one which did note accept the ruling of the United Nations. Netanyahu has to day indeed only hours left to make the right choice and right decision in order to secure the peaceful future of its Beloved state of Israel. A wise and future oriented decision is needed, however the readiness of the others to respect the State of Israel is also needed. Lasting peace is a must! But are the neighbors prepared to give peace a chance. That is the question!

 

BABTIGERS

2:04 PM ET

April 27, 2011

Middle East Strife and the Israeli's policy for the US

The strife occuring in the middle east could not be worse for the Israeli's not only has their one leader who is willing to communicate and continue the peace accords but a nation that resembled and ally. The fact that the Arab spring may very well stike up islamist movements and politicize other radicals is terrifying to the LIkud government. The complexity of this issue is not for words and one must assume the behind the scenes policy making the CIA and Mossad are conducting...

 

ESTHER HEYMAN

12:51 AM ET

April 28, 2011

Fatah And Hamas Unite/Rothkopf Bashes Israel

So now that "moderate" Palestinian President Abbas has openly allied himself with the genocidal anti-Semites of Hamas, to whom should Israel capitulate?

Rothkopf is partially right: If Israel refuses to make unilateral concessions to terrorists who have sworn to reprise the Holocaust, Muslims and Europeans and American liberals will hate Jews. So will the rest of the world, except for those racist American conservatives.

Of course, what Rothkopf conveniently leaves unsaid is that if Israel makes unilateral concessions to terrorists who have sworn to reprise the Holocaust, Muslims and Europeans and American liberals will still hate Jews. So will the rest of the world, except for those racist American conservatives.

Face it, Rothkopf...there is no concession Jews can make that will appease Jew haters.

It will be perversely satisfying to see the Germans self-righteously insist that Jews are paranoid for refusing to construct an annihilationist state on their borders.

"Hamas pledges mass murder of Jews?" will ask an incredulous Angela Merkel. "Who could be so neurotic as to take seriously this threat?"

"Such a thing could never happen. These Jews...always creating trouble. The status quo just cannot be allowed to perpetuate. We must impose a...what would be a good term?"

"Ah...a Final Solution."

How is that peace treaty with Egypt working out, Rothkopf? So much for Land For Peace.

I see that Arvay, Mighty Mouse, Dr. Spark, and Babtigers thoroughly enjoyed celebrating April 20, the 122nd anniversary of their Fuehrer's birth. Obviously, not a fermented drop went to waste:

"Peaceful protests, met with the normal Israel brutality..."

Yeah, all those brutal Jewish female infants attacking innocent Palestinian knives with their throats...

 

David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.

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