Posted By David Rothkopf Share

Mike Barnicle, who is to "Morning Joe" what Uncle Joe was to "Petticoat Junction," today asserted that President Obama's recent tax deal signified a shift to the center. Since Barnicle also spent considerable time touting his love of the Boston Red Sox, we probably should not be surprised that he is confused about other matters as well. But I couldn't help but wonder when I heard the statement about Obama whether the time had actually come that we needed to start drawing people diagrams to help them find the center.

Perhaps it is due to the way Washington twists and distorts everything. In fact, the more I thought about it, the more I started to realize that in the perverse world of U.S. politics, there is not just one center. There are, at least, three.

There is the expedient center. This is the one Barnicle was talking about and the one that makes partisan purists spit. (For more on this, see Keith Olbermann. Lord knows, I can't bear to watch his histrionics any more. But you might find it illuminating or weirdly fascinating, anyway.) The way you find this center is you take the extremes and you split the difference between them. This is the center about which Descartes might say, "I compromise therefore I am."

Then, there is the money center (also known as the rich dark chocolaty center or the creamy nougat center or just as the delicious candy center). This is the center where big time donors live. Watch closely and you'll see plenty of behavior, including likely upcoming White House appointments, that show they are acutely aware they may have alienated this group during the past couple years and they want them back. The money center is, of course, Wall Street and shifting to this center means adopting policies that are calculated to open their wallets come campaign time. These policies tend not to be made on a left-right spectrum but rather on a top-to-bottom scale and they always benefit the top. (Or in the case of the estate tax provisions in the current deal, the tippy tippy top.)

Both of these groups are odious to wingnuts. But neither is truly dangerous to them because from time to time, their interests overlap. However, there is one center they really fear: That's the principled center.

It's also known as the independent center. It is not found halfway between left and right but rather off that scale altogether. It is a place where decisions are made free of partisan distortions and special interest emoluments. It is a place where right is what you try to be and not a reflexive, dogma-driven political orientation.

If you want to get a sense of what the independent center looks and sounds like, listen to yesterday's remarks by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The mayor is controversial but has been, by any measure, highly effective and dependably independent. He understands business. He understands politics. Most importantly, he understands how to get things done. It is a bit of a paradox that a billionaire from Wall Street is the politician in the United States today who may well be the biggest threat to the political establishment. (On the other hand, being beholden to no one makes independents a lot more comfortable. For those who depend on establishments, it is often a luxury they can't afford.)

As for Obama's decision, it may be a move to the expedient center or to the money center or both. It is certainly not a move to the independent center. For the United States to layer on another $1 trillion in debt at this juncture is obscene. Were the money to benefit those truly in need or to provide a true stimulus that might restart the economy and later make it easier to pay down existing debt, that might forgive the move. But first of all, we have lived with these tax cuts for a decade and it is the first decade in memory when we are negative on job creation (through good times and bad). Secondly, the provisions for the richest Americans will have zero impact on their spending and are unlikely to do much to stimulate anything except their sense they have the game rigged. Further, not only do they know it is bad for us but they act accordingly. See today's Financial Times lead story, "US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off in two years as capital costs soar." The tax deal may fill a few pockets but it is not filling the markets with confidence. Certainly, the deal on raising the amount that can be inherited tax free from $7 million a couple to $10 million was entirely unnecessary.

No, this deal was expedient. It was also yet another case of this administration's problem ailment: premature capitulation. It may well have been caused in part by the political toughness and hypocrisy of the Republicans (calling for fiscal responsibility and tax cuts for millionaires) or by the desire to play to the base on the left (union support for extending unemployment benefits and for middle class tax cuts). It may therefore be seen as being halfway between political extremes … but its consequence is only to unnecessarily and irresponsibly deepen our debt without any assurance at all that it will stimulate the economy. (Despite new White House claims that without it we risk double dip recession. Where was the White House on this prior to this week?)

If both parties continue to produce legislative and fiscal sausage the way they produced this deal, then there will be many Americans who won't need a map to find their way to the principled center should a candidate emerge who claims that ground. Mike Bloomberg might well be that candidate and come 2012, especially were he to run on a platform of staying for just one term to maximize his independence, he might offer the United States a long-overdue and welcome timeout from a two-party reality that is both broke and has made us broke.

PS: Ok, well, given this news which broke after I wrote this post, perhaps what I meant to suggest was that someone like Mike Bloomberg should run ...

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JHAWK2

8:11 AM ET

December 10, 2010

Not So Fast

David,

Here is another perspective on your point: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/12/can-pragmatism-pay-off/67735/

I'm want to add that positions and actions in the independent center are limited by the politics of reality. Bloomberg faces this and has to compromise and Obama, largely due to the decision to postpone the tax cut issue until after the midterm elections, had to face this also.

On another point, I think it's sort of funny that you talk about all of these types of independence but then accuse the WH of having a primary flaw of capitulating too quickly.

Wouldn't this imply that they are not following some "ideological" position but are in-fact engaging in the type of independence that you seem to desire in Washington?

Finally, I'd hardly call the deal irresponsible. Ideal? Not in terms of efficient stimulus. But just because it's not ideal doesn't mean that it is not good or worthwhile.

 

JKLAIRWIN

10:53 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Start thinking.

Just what will it take before the die-hard Obama apologists finally get the picture. The guy has sold us out, plain and siimple.

 

ZATHRAS

4:06 PM ET

December 10, 2010

The Bloomberg Fantasy

The political center will always be defined in terms of what lies on either side of it, unless it is personalized so that it becomes defined in terms of one man or a group of people.

It is true that lots of Americans are sick of partisan warfare by the political classes of the two parties and see no profit in plunging into it themselves. They would like a way around it, a broad and easy path around all the unpleasantness. That is what Mayor Bloomberg represents.

But that is all he represents. Bloomberg has succeeded in New York for the same reason Rudolph Giuliani did; he used the Republican line on the ballot to give the voters a chance to vote for someone other than perpetually feuding faction leaders of the Democratic Party that is dominant in city politics. He then used the institutional power of the Mayor's office to address issues Democratic faction leaders could not -- and he benefited from the fact that the financial services sector so critical to New York City recovered much more quickly from the economic collapse it did so much to cause than the rest of the country did.

This kind of success is not replicable on the national level, something I think Bloomberg may understand better than some of his admirers. They see him as a national political hope, rich enough not to need to raise money and close enough to their way of thinking that he would listen to them. I don't know Bloomberg and have no special insight into his thinking, but his actions to date suggest to me that he understands his money by itself would not be enough in national politics. Neither have I a strong impression that he regards the opinions of his admirers as highly as they regard his.

In any event, Bloomberg comes up in this context as an answer to the problem of the center as exemplified by the discussion of the tax cut compromise, which gets us off on the wrong track right from the start. This is because much of the political center is relieved at the prospect of an agreement, as President Obama appears to be himself. Some of that agreement consists of ideas Bloomberg appears to endorse (I'm not aware that he has commented on the whole package). And as someone who is probably more conservative than anyone David Rothkopf knows, I can say with confidence that the tax agreement is a disaster.

We cannot afford all these tax cuts to actual and potential large campaign contributors -- the point of the last administration's tax policy to begin with. Giving breaks to individuals and businesses who have large reserves of cash now that they are not spending or investing will be no more effective at stimulating the economy than Bernanke quantitative easing, and for the same reason. Even if some stimulus does result, from extension of unemployment benefits and some of the business tax cuts, it will not leave anything behind. Like last year's "cash for clunkers" gambit, it will trade spending now for spending later, and that's it.

This would make sense if Obama were right that we are in the midst of an economic recovery that is not "moving fast enough." He isn't. The part of the economy from which the members of Obama's economic policy team were drawn -- the financial services industry -- is doing all right. The export sector is doing all right. Most of the rest of the economy is struggling to stay above water. It is not on an upward trajectory, and this tax cut package will not help it at all.

The political center's response to it is mostly relief that there is agreement. That's not a foundation on which anything meaningful can be built.

 

BLUE13326

4:37 PM ET

December 10, 2010

I'm no fan of Bloomberg, but

I'm no fan of Bloomberg, but the bond market will have its pound of flesh, and when interest rates rise, we are done.

 

BLUE13326

7:49 PM ET

December 10, 2010

And I'd add Orzag going to

And I'd add Orzag going to Citigroup should make anyone puke.

 

David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.

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