Thursday, September 9, 2010 - 4:15 PM

In her well-received remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations yesterday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton let slip a statement that immediately sent the inter-American affairs semantic fashion police scurrying. She referred to the on-going threat posed by Mexican drug cartels and their allies to Mexican society as an "insurgency."
This comment was immediately disputed by Mexican President Felipe Calderon's administration, which argued that they were not becoming another Colombia and that they were doing what was necessary to keep its political system from being co-opted, corrupted and battered into ineffectiveness or worse. It also made some in the State Department and in the -- very conventionally-minded and cautious -- U.S. Latin American policy community squirm.
All those reactions are reasons why Clinton's remarks are exactly on target. It is hard for Mexico to make the case that it has its arms around the problem, when news of its third mayor to be killed in the past several weeks is breaking. It is hard when, as quoted in an excellent Los Angeles Times story on the subject, one senior U.S. immigration and customs official cites the fact that the Mexicans have "lost an ‘astronomical' number of police officers and soldiers." In short, it is hard for them to argue that everything is under control when it is clearly not.
Sometimes diplomacy is the art of varnishing unpleasant truths. But sometimes it is the art of stripping away the varnish. In this case it is the latter, because while the Calderon administration has struggled valiantly with this issue, they are losing ground -- and the worse things get, the more they go from being primarily a Mexican problem to being a North American problem. President Calderon may not like it, but this is already a political issue in the U.S. Simply shifting troops to our southern border will not be enough if pockets of Mexico become even more lawless, and in turn even more dangerous staging grounds for threats to the U.S.
Whether the crises in Mexican provinces -- locked in struggles with brutal gangs of drug dealers -- technically fulfills the definition of an insurgency is immaterial. In fact, Clinton's language was actually quite nuanced: "We face an increasing threat from a well-organized network, a drug-trafficking threat that is, in some cases, morphing into or making common cause with what we would consider an insurgency."
Sometimes just a word can be a wake-up call. In this case, if it is not one for the Mexicans -- whether for reasons of pride or denial -- it must be for the Obama team, who have from the beginning recognized that instability in Mexico -- for whatever reason -- is among the most serious, complex, and difficult to tackle threats the U.S. faces today.
ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP/Getty Images
The fact that actually you named the President FELIPE CALDERON with a wrong name "Mexican President Jose Calderon's administration..." makes me ponder about how serious you are regarding this binational problem...
I know that Obama is not Osama you know!
You're right. The name was a stupid typo. I'll have it fixed. Falibility is one of my strong suits. That said, having changed the name and re-read the piece...I'm sticking with my guns on the rest of the piece. Apologies.
While your on "stupid typo", Dave, fallibility (with a double L) may be one of your strong suits.
If we're grading on spelling, we should make sure our grammar is correct, lest we look like smug idiots. .."While YOU'RE . . . ." not your.
Mexico rightly judges the American demand for illegal drugs as the fuel that feeds the fire of the cartel wars. America rightly judges the astounding corruption and incompetence of Mexico as an indication that they are incapable of practical self-government. Since the United States is unlikely to give up its insatiable demand for drugs I for one see no solution and the eventual dissolution of the unity of the Mexican Republic into a collection of drug cartel/war lord fiefdoms. The only possible solution to this is the ‘politically unacceptable’ complete closure, sealing and the militarization of US/Mexican land border and sea approaches.
That is a relatively one dimensional outlook. There are many policies changes that could be made, in addition to enforcement, that could change the dynamics of the situation.
Stop fighting a war you can't win
"Sealing" the border for the purpose of halting the drug trade is a ludicrous proposition with no grounding in reality. Even if it were possible, it would be at an astronomical expense and provide no tangible benefit.
Like sugar or iPhones, high-demand, high-margin commodities will find their way into the hands of consumers, regardless of the logistic rigors required to deliver and acquire them. Plug one leak and another will spring elsewhere. The insane fallacy of "fighting" against products that grow from the ground is what has destroyed so many lives and communities, not the product itself.
Regardless of what your pastor, police, principal or local politician tells you, the vast majority of people who use recreational drugs do so responsibly, without cost to their friends, family, career or health. For those who are unable to moderate, the costs of treating addiction are a tiny fraction of the overwhelming cost of fighting a war on plants and the people who transport them.
The only way this insane murder and destruction will end is if the world wakes up and realizes that recreational drugs are a just another natural commodity, and should be traded, taxed and regulated like oranges, lumber, and steel.
I know this is a hard concept for you Drug Warriors to grasp, but our society will not collapse if recreational drugs were legal, taxed and regulated. As evidence, I cite "Ethyl alcohol," available in a wide variety of tastes and colors at your local convenience store. Considering its availability, it's amazing we're not all drunk, all the time, isn't it? I can get all the cocaine, heroin, and marijuana I could afford right now with just a few phone calls, but I don't.
Funny that.
"Recreational drugs" makes me puke
There is nothing recreational about heroin!
The only people advocating for the leagalisation of drugs are those hooked on drugs, or making money on the manufacturing, sale or otherwise being in the loop. Are you being paid to advertise your "believes"? We win you lose!
several years back Portugal decided to base their drug policies around evidence and reason. As a result, they decriminalized ALL drug use and/or possesion. Trafficking in drugs remained illegal. When the idea to do this was floated in the public arena, the same fears that we have, eg. that drug use and addiction would sky-rocket, robberies and crimes by addicts needing a "fix" would increase, foriegners would increase as a result of drug "tourism", etc. etc. crime would increae....all these and more were heard. But they did it anyhow.
The results were not at all what most people would expect, especially not after us all having been steeped in anti-drug commercials and such for decades now. Drug use among teenagers actually went down. AIDS and hepatitus infections plummeted, more people went into treatment to get off them altogether, and those alien hordes of drug tourists" never did materialize. Overall, this brave experiment in running government by reason instead of emotions was an unparelled success. Given this example here and the sharp decline in gang violence upon repeal of alcohol prohibition historically, it's obvious that there certainly is another choice.
People need to realize that the drugs themselves dont create a desire to form a gang/cartel, the circumstances under which supply and demand play out compels it. Those circumstances then are the thing we must fight against and change. Only an imbocile could possibly believe thats its possible to stop people from using and selling drugs to each other, so the choice is really one of whther or not we think certain drugs, their distrubution, who they are sold to, are better left in the hands of un-elected cartel king-pins, or with people who we can trust not to sell them to kids or cut them with toxins. Thats the way it always was before the Carrie Nation, Anslinger types made their own moral disgust of other people's choice of intoxicants, the law of the land.
Funny how people were able to see that anti-booze laws were behind the creation of that black-market (and the crime and corruption that entails), and that fixing the problem involved repealing the laws responsible for it. Yet when precisely the very same problems arose with other drugs, the solution seems to escape them. Perhaps its understandable to suppose that, given the relative scarcity of drug users compared to alcohol, that maybe it might be possible to stamp out that problem by nipping it in the bud, so to speak. But that didn't happen. Quite the opposite in fact.
So to continue on as if that might still be a possibility is downright delusional. People do drugs. Deal with it. Our choice now, whether we like it or not...approve of drugs or not, is now to ask ourselves whether we want criminals in charge of their sale and distribution thus driving the price to where they now reap incredible profits (which is also money they can use to fund whatever cause they choose), or whether those who will inevitably do drugs should have their supply made and profits reaped by people we can hold accountable should they begin selling to children eg. It's lreally an easy decision and the only reason we haven't already made it is the inflence of a certain element in society that clings to the staus quo no matter how devastating doing so may be. Its a choice between remaining simply reactionary... or using our brains to become "pro-actionary". Of solving our drug problem the way Portugal did.
Why would the billionaire cartel leaders and associates want drugs to become legal? They make their astounding profits precisely because they are illegal. And FYI, pharmecuetical giants already do manufacture heroin and all the other opiate-opioid drugs we all use legally. Heroin, per dose, actually costs mere pennies to produce this way. The steep prices charged on the street are entirely artificial and they get away with it because we made a decision to try and get rid of them entirely. Clearer heads at least maaged to repeal the ban on alcohol, but the crime spike that began with alcohol Prohibition dropped upon Repeal. And the reason was because the organized gangs moved way from making and selling that drug and simply moved to the other drugs that, back then, wasn't popular enough with the general population to warrant their repeal as well. Your belief that they remained there because they were all more destructive to the person using them than alcohol is simply untrue. Heroin and morphine are chemical brothers, they cause the same physical damage as demerol, codiene, and other opioids, the same addiction, everything. Like the rest it only costs pennies per/does to make. It does provide a better "rush" when injected, but that's it. People can do heroin and other narcotic pain-killers daily for many many years and die in their bed at a ripe old age. That you cannot do with alcohol or a slough of presription drugs.
\Why then is it illegal when its opiate bros. are? Heroin does not cause violent crime. The profits to be made in the black market supplying it surely does. There was no black market before a law was passed that created it, a black market that is as inevitable and as sold as the "law" of supply and demand is. We have alcohol prohibtion to thank for the rise of the US-based mafia -- la cosa nostra, and we have pot, coke, heroin prohibition to thank for the violence in Mexico.
I expect a Military Coup to occur in Mexico within the next 5 to 10 years.
They have been the only ones that, so far, has been fighting the cartels.
If that does happen, expect a role back off all the economic "Reforms" that has allowed a already very wealthy few get wealthier at the rest of the Mexican population.
Mexico's troubles go back to the days of the Conquistadors.
Look at the Ducth!
The only reason they are putting restriction back on the legal drug trade is the Foreigners coming in to abuse them.
Its the "Keep out of the Cookies" syndrome.
The more my Mom told be to stay out of the Cookie Jar, the more had to have a cookie!
Unfortunately, there's a substantial number of people among us who are incurious, are highly obedient and extremely deferentiial regarding whatever an authority figure tells them is true. Sociologists know them as RWA-SDOs (or authoritarian followers and leaders, respectively). And they simply cannot understand why the rest of us would behave that way. They can't understand why anyone would want to disobey merely to satisfy their curiosity over something they know isn't good for them in the first place. And because they can't understand it, they oppose it on principal.
But because their cognitive--intellectual development hasn't fully matured, their worldview is still reduced to the simple black and white dualities our minds could grasp as children. This then places them in a world of simplistiic, "right or wrong, us and them, legal or unlegal, do it or don't do it'...kinds of choices. This group gives rise to our more prejudiced, bigoted personalities because simple epthets or labels are easier to make sense of than if they saw them as we do....as many individual people, each with different views and experiences than our own. So again, unfamiliarity represents possible hidden threats, and so theyre compelled to oppose their ways, their religions, their vices, even something as inocuous as their spoken language. Lack of understanding means lowered empathy or sympathy for drug-war victims, hightened aggression makes them more inclined to take up careers with the military, which they are suited to, and domestic law-enforcement (DEA, ICE, etc. ) which they are not.
And it's these people who initiated the drug-war, who carry it out, and who stand in the way of resolving it in any way other than brute force.
(As an aside, this is but one of several social crises they hinder a resolution to. Search the phrase: "RWA-SDO Authoritarian Embrace" using google scholar. Weeds out the nonsense)
It's Colombia where drug cartels "morphed into or made common cause with" an insurgency, not Mexico.
Colombia has long had groups, notably the FARC, that sought political change through violence. It had such groups when drug cartels there started becoming flush with cash in the late 1970s and '80s. Violent political factions were salient facts of political life there. Where is their Mexican counterpart? With what political faction are the Zetas, the Sinaloa cartel, or the Gulf cartel making common cause?
If that's just a technical distinction, then it seems we're being asked to believe that whether Sec. Clinton was right or not is immaterial. It's enough that she's saying the same thing about drug violence in Mexico everyone else is here, just with different words.
Look, I'm not a hard case. I don't want Hillary Clinton to just get by as Secretary of State. I not only want her to succeed, I think the country needs her to succeed. Spinning won't make that happen.
In this case, if Sec. Clinton had really sought to "strip away the varnish" from Mexico's drug violence, she might have sought to note that its necessary condition is a pervasive moral degeneracy among specific groups of Americans, for example in the entertainment industry, one aspect of which is an insatiable demand for drugs. At this point in the story, I really don't think it's the Mexican government that needs the wake-up call.
Assuming this was hardly a slip of the tongue, it is still questionable as to whether President Calderon is the one who needed the wake-up call. After all, he has done more to try to crack down on narco-violence than his predecessors. If, as is widely assumed, the PRI returns to power after Calderon's tenure ends, we will be fortunate to have as much cooperation from elites in power. Furthermore, some believe that our very able Ambassador in Mexico City is not receiving the whole-of-government support he needs to implement even the Mérida Initiative, not to mention a truly strategic approach to these intractable problems. In the meantime, it may be worth remembering that the United States must work by, with and through our Mexican friends.
I find Rothkopf's blog one of the finest at FP.com. Except, however, when he comments on something related to Mrs Clinton. Then I wonder if he nothing more than a groupie of hers.
As for the issue per se, everybody knows where it comes down to: American military presence in Mexico. As a Latin American myself, I'm tired of seeing this issue being used by the US to press LatAm countries to give space to American intervention. And sometimes the issue is completely blown out of proportion - in the case of Costa Rica.
Ok, first off, it is my belief that an author lacks any kind of credibility if he writes about a country and can't even get it's President's name right, especially if the country is located right next door. I'd like to remind Mr. Rothkopf that the name of Mexico's President is FELIPE CALDERON, not JOSÉ CALDERÓN. There is another inaccuracy in Mr. Rothkopf's piece. Mexico has no provinces. Just like the United States, it is politically administered and divided in states.
Secondly, far from suggesting that everything is under control, President Calderón has warned the Mexican citizens that the war is getting tougher as the days go by and has openly recognized that he would like to welcome new input from civil society and other political groups that will help improve his strategy. In this respect, he has recently been holding "security dialogues" all across the country as forums of debate and dialogue from which he seeks to get an evaluation of his security policy. This would not have happened if he actually believed he has the problem under control.
Furthermore, it is shortsighted to affirm that the problem is merely a Mexican problem, when even earlier this week, Mayors Against Illegal Guns released a report which, citing ATF data, states that 90% of the weapons retrieved from Mexican crime scenes can be traced back to American gun dealers. Likewise, the American market for drugs makes druglords fight for territory to get their illegal substances in the United States. I find it hard to believe that the modern infrastructure in the border with the United States can be easily vulnered. So whilst, indeed, corruption is rampant in Mexico, the United States is hardly exempt from this problem.
Finally, if the Mexican authorities don't agree with Secretary Clinton's remarks, it is hardly because of pride or denial. The Mexican reality is just as complex as was Colombia's 20 years ago, but it is certainly different. To affirm that both countries are the same falls into the category of sheer ignorance. The Mexican drug gangs have no political motives. And while their tactics and intimidation practices have become more threatening and sophisticated, the Secretary should know better than to label drug gangs in Mexico an insurgency. She is the top American diplomat, and she should start to act like one.
For clarities sake however, depicting FARC as a drug gang with a political motive is simply untrue. Its a political group that happens to have used drug traficking as a means of raising revenue so they could continue to fight their political cause via an insurgency, which is the begining and end of what they are all about, Drugs per se figured nowhere in he ideology. Military commanders and political figures within the government also availed themselves of drug revenue, as they have done and are doing right there in Mexico.
That they are not a Mexican insurgency however is true. They arent fighting for government office, ideology, or anything of the sort. Rather they fight to simply maintain the infrastructure they've established through which they supply the American market with the drugs it's government banned, as well as continue providing it with drugs that have their profit margin artificially widened...something they are free to do since the US government decided they wanted no part in regulating them itself.
Hilary Clinton seems solidly behind the US foreign "policy" of war against multiple countries. It is no wonder that she sees Mexico in terms of war. Similarly, she seems solidly behind the US war against its own people called the War on Drugs.
Those who blame the problem on the War on Drugs are correct. Legalization, like alcohol and nicotine, is the path to a solution. The 18th Amendment (Prohibition) greatly increased the scope and profitability of mob crime, fixed by the 21st Amendment. Unfortunately, the corrupt nature of US politics prevents sensible legislation to improve the situation.
Calderon's deployment of national troops into the border towns, in an effort to stem the tide of the cartels, could be called a "surge" thus giving credence to Secretary Clinton's use of the word "insurgency."
The question is it working? It's difficult to rely on the MSM for accurate information. Take Cuidad Juarez, for example, across the border from El Paso, Texas. Any assessment of the value-added military complement to augment Juarez's police force is diluted by lurid headlines and pictorials of the latest body count. The black cloud suspended over Juarez is that it has become, according to international statistics, one of the world's most dangerous cities. It is also the city that has the unenviable reputation of 600 femicides in addition to the unsolved disappearance of 3000 young women.
Maquiladoras that were the lifeblood of the economy and the reason for its population burgeoning to 2.4 million have closed due to the recession leaving 100, 000 unemployed. Idle and desperate for work many are exploited and seduced by the cartel: they have become a ready source of expendable, relatively cheap recruits for the Zeta and Sinaloa. This is bad for the "surge."
If we try to compare the success of the American surge in Iraq with Calderon's putative surge in the border towns, we can deduce that it's been a long, arduous and costly effort. It has accelerated the battle for control between the opposing cartels just as surge in Iraq provided cover for opposing sectarian factions to duke it out. It is as much psychological as it is physical warfare.
What we do know is that the cartels are redoubtable and resurgent just as in Iraq. They are committed to do anything to keep their lucrative trade going. Whether they are killing 3 mayors or killing banda and nortenos for singing narcocorridos ballades the cartels find offensive, daily disrupting the lives of Juarez's citizens and other border towns has become commonplace.
Until the authorities can wrap their heads around the problem and come up with alternative strategies to destroy, rather than disrupt, these "insurgents" it seems there is little hope that the current status quo will measurably change for the better.
I find Mr. Rothkopf's article to be missing a few bricks. Felipe Calderon is totally responsible for the blood spilled under his administration in his futile attempt to wage war on the druglords.
First, if the United States were to at least legalize marijuana, this would put a better than 40% dent in the Mexican drug traffic, as well as providing new sources of revenue both for Mexico and the United States.
Second, as the US government's futile battle against alcohol during Prohibition showed, any amount of law enforcement activity against something that people fundamentally want is futile. If the United States and Mexico were really serious about fighting the drug traffic, there would be moves towards substantially upgrading the Mexican system of taxation. I've said it time and time again.
Al Capone was not brought down by bullets. He was brought down by an IRS tax accountant.
Third, from an American perspective, the current method of fighting the drug wars is convenient for Washington, DC as it continues to supply a demand for yet more military contracts. Until such time as pressure can be brought to stop sucking on the big teat, there will be incentives in Washington to continue these absolutely failed policies.
David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.
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