Monday, September 28, 2009 - 5:26 PM

World Bank President Bob Zoellick has done an important service with remarks he delivered Monday in which he said, "The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar's place as the world's predominant reserve currency. Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options." In fact, the only issue I take with his statement, delivered at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, is that it does not go far enough.
It has thus far been easy for most Americans to shrug off discussions of coming competition for the dollar as a reserve currency. First, of course, most Americans aren't even aware that the discussion is taking place and of those that are aware, most haven't the slightest clue how the international monetary system works -- which at least gives them something in common with most members of Congress and central bankers everywhere. (Zoellick is rightly pretty tough on the central banking community in his remarks, as well.)
Also, when Europeans or Russians starting talking about needing another currency so there is an alternative to the greenback, Americans tend to shrug it off as dollar-envy. It was not, of course, so easy to dismiss such suggestions when it came from the Chinese given their role as our principal creditor and the fact that they had more reserves than any other country in the history of mankind. But we put our hands over our ears and made "la, la" noises to drown out the discussion anyway.
Thus, whenever the issue arose, as it did again in discussions last week at the G-20 meeting, it has not had much resonance even among most members of the policy community in Washington. Many view the dollar as an immutable, unchanging fixture of the financial world ... even though recent experience has demonstrated that other than greed, there are few immutable, unchanging features of the financial world. This made it easy for the U.S. Treasury to simply mouth reassurances -- as Tim Geithner did last week -- that the dollar should remain the reserve currency without getting much questioning here at home.
But Bob Zoellick is not a whacky, Gitane-smoking, eurocommunist with an anti-American agenda.
He is a Republican, a Bush appointee, one of only a couple of dozen senior current or former U.S. government officials who can say they worked at Goldman Sachs, the true power center of international finance. So when he says don't take the dollar's place for granted, perhaps others in Washington will listen and start to focus more on the increasing likelihood that the growing chorus of those seeking change may well gain traction and as may the alternative currencies themselves -- be they Special Drawing Rights, the simulated money produced by the IMF for use with its members, or Chinese yuan.
Of course, Zoellick, whose remarks (which I read in "prepared for delivery" form) are typically thoughtful and also address the importance of the ascension of the G-20 and how this newly central group should take into consideration the broader rise of emerging economies, stops short of actually joining those calling for an alternative currency. It's easy to understand why, given his position.
But since none of the rest of us are president of the World Bank, we should not feel so constrained. There are plenty of good reasons why there should be one or more better alternatives to the dollar as a reserve currency than currently exist. Further, by not taking the discussion seriously we are less likely to play an effective role in the discussion about the future architecture of the system, consigning ourselves to a more reactive, sideline role.
First, there is no reason why one country should be given the responsibility or the right to play such a central role in determining international economic policies and outcomes. This is unlikely to be very persuasive here at home where most Americans first reaction is going to be, "Why the heck not? If not us, who? Don't we deserve it as the world's number one economy?"
Given that the call for equity is not likely to be persuasive, what about basic American values like our belief in the benefits of competition. Look what has happened during this era in which we have not believed there was a real alternative to the dollar: We have behaved extraordinarily recklessly, piling on debt and practically taunting the world to find other options. It is clear, we don't have the discipline to manage the dollar properly as it is. We need the competition as much as anyone else.
Would a rapid selloff of dollars be potentially disastrous for America? Absolutely. But, we are deluding ourselves if we don't think such alternatives already exist. Why is gold at such absurd heights and going higher? Further, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that oil and other commodities are regularly used as alternatives to currencies in what amount to forex trading strategies. In other words, markets demand such alternatives already. And any movement toward acceptance of new alternatives is likely to take a long time as investors cautiously adjust. So, we have to ask ourselves is the greater downside in embracing change or in clinging to a viewpoint that is both out of touch with emerging realities and promoting bad behaviors on our own part?
The international economic system will evolve with our cooperation or without it. Currently the biggest threat to the dollar is not those who seek alternatives but the U.S. policies that are pushing them in that direction. It's time we engaged in this debate in a serious way, and Zoellick's remarks are a very constructive first step in that direction.
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Or we could just address the underlying reasons why there's such a push for another reserve currency...such as cutting our massive deficit spending. addressing some of the trade imbalances, exploring for domestic energy resources...nah, better to let our economy be destroyed and our currency collapse, all in the name of being good global citizens....
Your sarcasm is appropriate, but ...
We are unlikely to find the political will to balance our budget. There is no consensus on how to do that. American imperialists want to continue to budget our world-wide overstretch, as Paul Kennedy termed it and Chalmers Johnson reminds us of it. Those who wish to see social justice at home and a better distribution of wealth for our citizens, as I do, find more budget cutting a threat to education, health-care and other domestic needs that are already suffering.
A departure from the dollar as the world's reserve currency would be the only antidote to our corporate driven militarism and its destruction of what was once a representative form of government in our country.
The oil idea is a rather reckless one. Oil's shown to be volatile and dangerous to bet on, and I don't think the major economies really want the dependency on it to increase like that.
a.) of course we should fix the problems with our economy. republicans and democrats alike have been reckless and irresponsible in that regard. i'm not saying we should participate in this discussion instead of being responsible...i'm saying we'd better heed this discussion because it offers some lessons we need to hear.
b.) i'm not recommending oil be used as an alternative to the dollar. i am merely observing...as have many...that much of its recent volatility has been linked to investors who view it as a hedge or otherwise as part of strategies linked to the dollar. it's something that has been happening for a long time.
Is there one right now that looks good to take over?
The Euro is (obviously) tied to Europe and doesn't include the two largest economies in the world.
I can't see China accepting the Yen and Japan wouldn't accept the Yuan. Setting aside sounds of friendliness to China in Japan's new government the two are situated so that they'll probably always be at odds.
We could go to the English pound but that just seems to ignore the majority of the current economy to me.
A gold standard just feels like far more trouble than it would be worth, I recall that there was a very nasty near-recession in the 19th century when the U.S didn't have enough and this time we won't have a Morgan to save us.
We could start on a global currency (possibly a Terra or a Sekai) but all 192 (U.N member states) nations would probably rip it to parts in weeks.
More importantly to me than the lack of a decent alternative is the question of how do we stop the dollars decline if we can't make a transition. The U.S would need at least a decade of peace and higher taxes to fix the black hole we like to give the pet name of 'deficit', and far longer to change banking culture and regain vanished political capital. Even if we do our best to go back to isolationism we won't have that decade.
You argue against the Euro as a world reserve currency on the basis of it being 1) "...tied to Europe" and 2) not including the 2 largest economies in the world. The first one is silly because it is actually a strength and the second one is even more silly because... Well, the word Bullocks comes to mind, actually. Think: More than the sum of its parts. Think: The Eurozone.
The Euro is the most viable candidate yet to become the world's 2nd reserve currency. And it is probably not a bad plan either, if done slowly. It would certainly inject some more honesty into the otherwise "distended dollar" game through the introduction of competition. And it wouldn't hurt anybody except those Americans who have been writing so many bouncy checks aka greenbacks. Ironic for those Harvard socialites who just a few years ago were banging their swords around claiming all is fair in competition and the marketplace allows people to discover their mistakes and correct them, isn't it?
The only thing to worry about is how quickly and with how much vigour another reserve currency would be globally adopted. Dangerous prospects abound for everyone in the case of a massive and sudden dollar glut. But does the U.S. actually think it will never have to pay for all of those rubber checks it has been printing?
Bouncy, bouncy, bouncy.
In re to 1. Not if the major new economies* decide that they are getting sick of the situation. They have no reason to simply accept the Euro over anything else. Will they? Perhaps, but nothing is set in stone.
In re to 2. Actually that is a very bad example. The European nations have shown that they are more than willing to freely disagree in the E.U about how to handle finances and economics if the voters don't like it. Currently if you combined the entire E.U into one economic group it would be larger than Japan's economy**, but the E.U doesn't work like that. Germany concerns itself with Germany's economy and views itself first as a nation-state, not as a member of an IO.
And I don't know if you were censoring yourself or not, but bullocks does not mean what you seem to think it does. A bullock is a gelded steer.
*Brazil, India, and China. I deliberately exclude Russia because, setting hype aside, it doesn't deserve to be seen as a rising economy in my opinion.
**A bit over two trillion. For reference, the U.S is over 14 trillion.
Let's not engage that way. Why don't we look at GDP(PPP) estimates from the cia world fact book? Wow. For once I am not talking bollocks, spell it how you will. Exciting.
Anyway, I think your numbers only reinforce the idea of the superprecious dollar that myself and others are disgusted to be discussing here.
And as for the disagreements of EU nations maybe I need to restate: Eurozone. Not EU. Not EU parliaments. Use the outdated bickering nation-state argument all you like; I was talking about the Euro. Unless, of course, we would like to indulge ourselves about which American state government failed to concern itself with its own economy to a greater degree than any other state, practiced the greatest amount of fiscal irresponsibility and therefore imposed the greatest amount of suffering upon its electorate.
Or am I confused? Are they not analogous?
And by Bullocks I was not talking about transportation in economy class, the so-called 'steerage' or 'cattle' class, but thank you for helping me clarify that. Bullocks. Plural. Cheers.
dollar has been in decline for decades
The dollar has been in steady decline for decades. This is simply a reflection of the real value of the dollar as Industrial output has declined.
It is the market judgment on US banking and financial practices as they have increasingly switched from being facilitators of Industry to producing their own nebulous 'products'.
That simply isn't going to change without a Herculean effort by not just the present administration but the next and the next.... to make Industry the centerpiece of the US economy.
Rothkopf makes some interesting points, and while I share many of his concerns, his breast-beating apocolyptic hyperbole is somewhat ill-informed and wrong headed, and predictably, many of the comments on this article, while following the popular CW, are equally wrong.
Question: What would happen if the US suddely lost its position as the "world reserve currency"? Answer: very little. The only people who would be hurt by that would be foreign investors. US manufacturers would benefit, and overall the economy would be relatively unaffected. The value of the dollar would plummet, of course, and the interest paid on government debt would start to rise, but most of that interest is still paid to Americans in any case.
Question: Is the US dollar going to remain the world reserve currency? Answer: Yes, of course, because is no alternative. Any attempt to form a 'basket' alternative would have to contain about 40% US dollars anyway, so, why bother?
Question: Do our creditors, particularly China, have some sort of awesome power over the dollar? No. It has been noted that the US has a large trade deficit with China. This trade deficit is a result of two offsetting factors: US overconsumption and Chinese overinvestment. The current situation suits the Chinese -- the USD is maintained and the Yuan is traded at an artifically low level that allows the Chinese to export more cheaply. Why on earth would the Chinese want to change this situation. Put another way: if the Chinese refused to take US dollars in trade for their goods, what would happen? The Yuan would appreciate, making Chinese exports more expensive, and making US domestically produced goods (and goods from some other countries) more competitive. You don't have to be genius to figure out that that is the last thing the Chinese want. China is benfitting from the current situation, and would be hurt if it changes.
In summary, don't be fooled by the political theatre presented by the Chinese as they publicly worry about the strength of the dollar. They are a lot more worried about their export competitiveness, and it is that reason, not their foreign currency reserves, that they argue for a strong dollar. As far as the Russians and Brazilians arguing for a new world currency, that is just a fantasy being promoted by a group of underperforming nations (just about everybody that isn't English speaking or Chinese) all of whom have more to lose than the US if the world lost its one openly traded reserve currency.
Oh, and BurningChrome, you don't know what you are talking about.
Now, let's focus on the US getting its own fiscal house in order.
Maybe we should "Yawn" & use “rubble" it’s about CONFIDENCE baby
The Dollar will reign supreme because no one trusts anyone else’s currency. The alternatives are too small or too fragile or too 7th century. Al Qaeda man talks against the dollar as he is paid to do so. At the end of the day, wherever you go, the merchants universally accept: American Dollars Only.
David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.
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