Monday, August 17, 2009 - 9:43 PM

Sometimes diplomatic initiatives produce progress. But
sometimes they produce just the illusion of progress. The best known example is
that our efforts to promote democracy worldwide have produced a
major uptick in the number of countries that conduct elections but that in
many of those countries that's as far as democracy goes. In fact, from Russia
to Venezuela the appearance of democracy is used to legitimize rulers with
anti-democratic intentions.
The Obama administration is going to need to be very careful to make sure that we don't fall into the same trap with "engagement." Just as we need to upgrade our definition of democracy to include not just elections but checks and balances, the preservation of the rights of minorities, and the other legal guarantees necessary to ensure the survival of the culture and intent of true democracy, we are going to need to ensure that we don't accept as the fruits of engagement empty gestures or other forms of pseudo-progress that actually empower, elevate or play into the hands of problem regimes without actually advancing our interests in material ways.
The release of John Yettaw to Senator Jim Webb illustrates just how tricky the engagement calculus is. Yettaw is the Missouri man who said a vision compelled him to swim a lake to visit Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Burmese democracy champion who has been under house arrest for most of the past two decades. His entrance into the home in which Suu Kyi is confined resulted in a three year extension of her term of house arrest despite the fact that she had nothing to do with the incident. This term was cut to 18 months by the leader of Burma's military regime Than Shwe. Nonetheless, the central wrong here is that a woman whose party enjoyed a massive victory in Burma's quickly and brutally quashed 1990 effort at democracy, a woman the Burmese people had selected to be their Prime Minister, is now going to be unjustly imprisoned for another year and a half for something she did not do.
Yettaw is thus a pawn in a bigger game and to the supporters of Suu Kyi it appears the U.S. has been played in precisely the way that was discussed on this blog last week. Webb, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Sub-Committee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, comes out with his man and his headlines and support for his conclusion that a thaw in the U.S. relationship with Burma would benefit us. But the injustice against Suu Kyi is prolonged even as her jailers receive a reward for undoing a secondary wrong that they had already capitalized on as a pretext for continuing policies that amount to nothing less than keeping a boot on the throat of the Burmese people. In other words, thanks to this intervention, both the arrest and the release of John Yettaw provide benefits to the Burmese regime and none to democracy, Suu Kyi or America's true interests in the country.
Apparently, according to preliminary reports, one of Webb's more substantial diplomatic "successes" was being allowed to see Suu Kyi. But according to a story by Seth Mydans in the New York Times, during that visit Suu Kyi and Webb may even have had a disagreement over the issue of continuing sanctions against the Burmese regime. Mydans suggested that Suu Kyi felt they had value. Webb reportedly argued that since so many countries in the region did not honor the sanctions that they were unenforceable and thus not a useful tool. While there is an undeniable practical reality to Webb's point, sometimes sanctions are useful even if they are not 100 percent effective, especially if the cost to the sanctioner, the U.S. in this case, is comparatively minor. In other words, since sanctions are a diplomatic tool, the metrics used to assess their value need to be more than just economic. If they send a message, advance a principle and complicate the lives of the targeted country or regime without causing damage to us that outweighs the (even limited) benefits then retaining them may make some sense. Just as winning a diplomatic "victory" may not make sense if it actually, on balance, benefits an adversary or undercuts our national interests or both.
Is there a path to engagement with the Burmese leadership that might be worth pursuing? Of course. And it may well be that gains from Webb's visit outweigh the negatives. It is too early to tell because thus far all the Burmese have done is what is easy for them and the only way to measure progress will be when they start doing things that are hard -- like freeing Suu Kyi or actually allowing free elections to take place.
There is never harm in dialogue that clarifies or advances our position. We should even be willing to shrug off claims by the other side that such dialogue represents a "victory" for them if it is we are net beneficiaries -- as I believe we were in the case, for example, of the release of the two American journalists from North Korea. In that instance, we got back Laura Ling and Euna Lee and the North Koreans at best, got a photo op with a stony-faced former U.S. president. Here, we got our prisoner back but in so doing appeared to be doing so by throwing Suu Kyi further under the bus and, inadvertently no doubt, underscoring differences between us and the revered leader of that country's democracy movement. We got one addled American but the Burmese junta got a "leave her in jail free" card and the perception that the U.S. might be willing to move forward with further engagement on better terms than might have been available in the recent past (better for the regime, not necessarily better for the 2100 political prisoners in Burma.)
The Bill Clinton visit was engagement with a purpose and with a carefully limited downside. The Webb visit, at first glance, appears not nearly so deft. The commitment to engagement with Iran falls somewhere in the middle with our reluctance to condemn the Iranian government's repression of its own people following a seemingly stolen election seen as either not giving enough support to reformers or, alternatively, not "tainting" the demonstrators with our support. It all depends on who you talk to. In yet another case, that of Cuba, we seem to be willing to require a clear quid pro quo for every future concession we may make, a much stricter standard than seems to be the case in some of these other instances. (Cuba must move toward democracy. Burma must move toward what? Repression that doesn't involve Americans? To my mind, until Suu Kyi is released a substantial change in our policy is not called for.)
Webb says he was not an official emissary of the administration. Bill Clinton said the same thing. Clearly, in both instances this particular bit of diplomatic kabuki theater is transparent to all. Webb is the regional subcommittee chair on a critical Senate subcommittee, he is close to the administration, was briefed by them before his trip and promises to brief them on his return. At no time did they renounce the trip and he traveled on a U.S. government plane. His visit was official and the credit for the release of Yettaw and the potential negative consequences of the mission must accrue to the president and his team.
Personally, I think making engagement a centerpiece of a new U.S. foreign policy is a major positive development for which the administration deserves great credit. But as with any such new initiative, we need to be careful about how we approach it prior to getting all the bugs worked out. The Webb mission, even with is success in terms of securing the release of Mr. Yettaw, winning a session with Suu Kyi and engaging in a rare exchange with the leader of the regime, raises important concerns that need to be addressed if the new policy is to work to our best advantage in the future.
CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP/Getty Images
against basically every effort at engagement? There is opportunity cost to the pose of purity.
Do you even read these posts before you comment? How can you possibly interpret this as a jeremiad against "every effort at engagement" when it explicitly embraces the approach? This is a comment about managing engagement wisely, nothing more. Disagree with it on those terms. But to discount it as something it is not is pointless.
Then headline it in those terms
The headline clearly questions whether 'engagement' as a concept is worth the cost. No, I didn't read it.
Your question should give you pause on at least two counts.
Mr. Rothkopf,
You are wrong. Very wrong.
This is the most simplistic comparison of US relations with North Korea and Myanmar that has ever been penned. You do a disservice to your background to paper over the differences between these two countries.
Let me state a few of the obvious.
North Korea is technically at war with the South and by extension, the US. Many American lives were lost in the war fifty years ago that was practically the beginning of the cold war which lasted for the next half century with Russia, China and their client states on one side and NATO on the other. Even today, North Korea would not be the problem that it is without the backing of China. Its nuclear arms are not only a threat to the US but to South Korea, Japan and the world, especially if allegations of proliferation are true.
Myanmar by comparison is an impoverished ex-British colony and Aung San Suu Kyi is an Oxford educated wife of a British national and the daughter of the first leader of independent Myanmar who was installed by the British soon after they were driven out of Asia by the Japanese during the second world war. The Burmese deserve democracy like any other people around the world but one that is clean of the remnants of colonialism. Free elections with or without Suu Kyi should suite them fine. But I doubt it would suite the British or Daw Suu Kyi.
If that ain't enough, you should pay attention to how Americans and US foreign policy are portrayed in Asia by the BBC, the British government's mouthpiece around the world. In every country in the area - China, Russia, the Koreas, Japan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India - US foreign policy is dragged through the mud with no regard to whatever noble intentions there might be. It is even worse when it comes to South America where Chavez and Castro are portrayed as heroes for doing the exact same thing that the junta in Myanmar are accused of doing.
It is as if democracy promoted by the US is inferior to any other kind. And all this is while the British are fighting along side the US in Afghanistan. If one was cynical, one would conclude the British were hedging their bets just like they were doing before the 2nd World War before Hitler showed his true colors. Or that they were cultivating and preserving spheres of influence around the world at the expense of the US.
US foreign policy needs to serve US interest. The promotion of democracy is in the interest of the US but we must realize that there are instances such as Zimbabwe, Kenya, and now Myanmar, where the beneficiaries are not just the people in each country, if they ever were intended to be.
One problem with an engagement strategy is just the opaqueness of the regimes. We just know so little about the internal workings and events in these countries we really have no idea what engagement will mean.
North Korea is a prime example; we have no idea what the Dear Leader really got internally from getting Clinton to visit. We do know he's ill and there's some sort of struggle over who will rule next; for all we know, Clinton's visit could have gone a long way toward condemning an entire generation of North Koreans to slavery. Nothing says I'm in control more than testing a few nukes and long-range rockets, kidnapping a couple of Americans, and have the most powerful country in the world respond by...sending an ex-President for a photo op.
David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.
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