Friday, June 19, 2009 - 10:08 PM

Like any new president, Barack Obama has stumbled as he grappled with the learning curve associated with the world's most demanding job. Given the range of issues with which he was confronted from his first day in office, it has only been fair that he should be not be judged too quickly and that his ideas and his team had time to take root and grow. In some areas, he has achieved notable success, such as his efforts to improve America's image in the world and his effort to move quickly to respond to the economic crisis. In others, such as the efforts to restart the auto industry or make meaningful changes in the regulation of the financial sector, the jury is out. As for real health care reform and meaningful steps to combat climate change, the key legislation is still being shaped, the key votes months away.
But as this week comes to an end, I think it is fair to say that Obama's foreign policy has suffered its first major failure, one that may haunt it for a long time to come. As those of you who have been reading this blog for the past few days know, I've been grappling with the issue of the administration's response...or lack thereof...to Iran's stolen election and the opposition's efforts to contest the results in the streets. Because I see the merits in stopping and evaluating a situation before responding. And I understand the reasons to maintain an open dialogue with the regime in Tehran.
But as each day of the week has gone by, America's silence seems less defensible. Do we really intend to engage the current regime as if nothing had happened? Do we really believe it is useful to send a message that America doesn't care any longer, won't act, won't speak out, won't penalize or criticize or seek to pressure those who compromise or crush democracy?
The administration seems to be saying that we can't afford ill will from anyone, even countries whose regimes denounce us and our allies. They seem to be worried that by supporting the opposition they will be tainted by association with us rather than empowered by it. And they seem to be saying that they can't think of any approaches better than their silence to advance our interests.
Why? Because multilateral diplomacy is so difficult? Britain, France, and Germany have all made stronger statements, we could have made one together? Why? Because the Chinas of this world would never go along with our statements because it puts them in a difficult light? The statement could have come from western powers alone. We don't need unanimity in matters like this. We need a forceful message that countries that violate the basic rights of their citizens should expect to pay a price for such behavior in the international community. Those who rise up in those countries should also know that the international community or a substantial portion of it will work tirelessly to support them to make the risks they are taking worthwhile.
We can seek engagement without checking our values at the door. Indeed, to do otherwise is to make engagement pointless. Why engage if it is not to advance our interests? How naïve it is to think that won't involve challenging, offending, even battling those with whom we are engaged. That doesn't mean our battles must be wars or produce the needless rifts of the Bush years.
But we must ask, in our silence did we send a message to Ayatollah Khamenei that might make he and his cronies feel more comfortable in using violence to suppress the pro-Democracy protestors? In our weak response to Kim Jong Il do we send a message that he may proceed with his nuclear and missile provocations effectively unchecked? In our desire to undo the damage of the Bush years by reaching out to former enemies, do we strengthen those who we should seek to weaken, tolerate the intolerable, fail to take action where action is called for?
I'm afraid the answer is yes. We are back on our heels. This does not make the world safer or conflict any less likely. Quite the contrary. Bush debased American leadership with his actions. Obama should remember that it is just as possible to do so through inaction.
There are many things this administration could have and should have said that would not undercut that which is sound in their foreign policy. They could have said… ideally in chorus with our allies… that the international community was disturbed by apparent irregularities, that any recount or investigation should be made by objective observers, that the suppression of peaceful protests would be viewed with great concern, that Iran would jeopardize its talks with the international community if it undertook violence or condoned voter fraud, that nuclear weapons agreements depend on trust and that countries that seek such trust must act accordingly, that while we seek to maintain engagement, there are limits to what we will tolerate and that we reserve all our options to advance our interests. They could have convened a meeting among like-minded countries to discuss options, sent an envoy, formally postponed further discussions of the nuclear issue until this situation was clarified. They could have raised a doubt in the minds of the leaders in Tehran about how we would react in the face of a crackdown, that there might be consequences.
If all this would make the Chinese uncomfortable because they might fear they could be accused of similar indifference to the rights of their citizens, well, that's too bad. It's a message they too need to hear. Capitulation to them on every issue simply because they are big (and yes, I am talking to you, Google management) creates terrible precedents and invites further bad acts.
Is the vision a world in which engagement becomes the ultimate objective of all foreign relations? Just as critics once rightly reminded the Bush administration that terror was not an enemy it was a tactic, so is it worth remembering that engagement is also just a tactic and not a goal in and of itself? While we should sacrifice to preserve our core values and interests, we should not sacrifice those values and interests to preserve our tactics.
JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images
really very well said. obama timidity was accetpable, even understandable, but only unto a point. he needs to come out and be strong, now. the iranian people, and the free world need him to.
Obama has not been silent. He will continue not to be silent. His response will track with events.
But as each day of the week has gone by, America's silence seems less defensible. Do we really intend to engage the current regime as if nothing had happened? Do we really believe it is useful to send a message that America doesn't care any longer, won't act, won't speak out, won't penalize or criticize or seek to pressure those who compromise or crush democracy?
If you want any chance at all, any, of Moussavi winning and/or the US successfully engaging with Iran, then the US government needs to resist the temptation to "take sides" in what amounts to an internal Iranian dispute.
Remember, "blaming the foreigner" (particularly the US and UK) is an established way in which the Iranian regime maintains its hold on power - witness Khamenei's speech, when he blamed foreign interference and criticized the UK as the worst. He's playing on a deep well of suspicion of foreign intervention among the Iranian populace, and for the US to say "This is all fraudulent bullshit - Ahmadinejad is no legitimately elected president!" would be as good as signing the political death warrant for Moussavi.
They seem to be worried that by supporting the opposition they will be tainted by association with us rather than empowered by it.
In Iran, they will. Khamenei is already trying to exploit the "foreign interference" card.
Why? Because multilateral diplomacy is so difficult? Britain, France, and Germany have all made stronger statements, we could have made one together?
Because aside from Great Britain, none of those countries have been viewed as the "boogeyman" inside Iran. Even the UK largely kept their mouth shut until Khamenei's remark on them being the worst of all foreign countries interfering in Iran, and their response amounted to dressing down the Iranian ambassador.
We need a forceful message that countries that violate the basic rights of their citizens should expect to pay a price for such behavior in the international community.
Like what - harsh rhetoric? God knows the world has enough hot air, and that certainly hasn't stopped, say, Burma or China.
You're like Christian Brose over on the "Shadow Government" blog - you seem to be living in some fantasy world where the US actually has some leverage over a country it has no diplomatic and even few commercial relations with, with said country specifically using the threat of US interference as a boogeyman to unify the populace on nationalistic grounds.
Here's a hint - all the progress we've seen so far, such as the repeated protests and the willingness to stand up to Khamenei and the Basij on this by the opposition, has been done by the Iranian people, and them alone. This is their problem, and for the US to interfere would be severely counterproductive if we want anything to change in the Iranian status quo during this situation.
Indeed, to do otherwise is to make engagement pointless.
Sometimes, choosing not to engage is the best choice. Considering Iran's case, I think it is the best choice in this situation.
Why engage if it is not to advance our interests? How naïve it is to think that won't involve challenging, offending, even battling those with whom we are engaged.
And as others with far more expertise on Iran than either you or me have said, actively trying to take sides, to insert ourselves in this situation, would be counterproductive. It would be against our interests, since Khamenei could then use it as a political tool to knock down challenges to this control.
It's not our fight, Rothkopf. I know it goes against your grain to accept that, but we need to simply stand back and let the Iranians settle their own shit, without giving the authorities tools to undermine change within the system.
But we must ask, in our silence did we send a message to Ayatollah Khamenei that might make he and his cronies feel more comfortable in using violence to suppress the pro-Democracy protestors?
Khamenei and his supporters don't particularly give a shit as to whether or not the US approves of their efforts to violently suppress the pro-Democracy protesters. They did severe repression and crackdowns even during the Khatami period, when the US did respond with condemnation.
Again, I must re-emphasize - criticizing Khamenei and the situation at this point, taking sides, would be playing into Khamenei's hands. He's fond of exploiting the "foreign meddling" card, and we would just be giving him more ammunition.
I'm afraid the answer is yes. We are back on our heels. This does not make the world safer or conflict any less likely. Quite the contrary. Bush debased American leadership with his actions. Obama should remember that it is just as possible to do so through inaction.
Funny that few Iranians, plus neither of the actual governments of France and Germany (both of whom have said things akin to "We know the US can't get involved in this right now, that's okay, we'll speak out") seem to agree with you.
When did you become such an idealist, Rothkopf, believing so strongly in the power of multilateralism and the US's rhetorical "power"?
They could have raised a doubt in the minds of the leaders in Tehran about how we would react in the face of a crackdown, that there might be consequences.
I don't know what's more sad - the fact that you think this would actually make a difference (considering that there's been plenty of international condemnation for prior Iranian crackdowns before, with little influence), or the fact that you think that the current governments will lift a finger to punish Iran for its election irregularities.
so is it worth remembering that engagement is also just a tactic and not a goal in and of itself?
In this case, considering Iran's history, it is a bad tactic.
I can honestly say this is one of your more disappointing posts, David. It's woefully ignorant of Iranian politics and history, as well as the actual influence that the US has in the situation.
You call this Obama's first great foreign policy failure - I call it one of his first triumphs. He's shown restraint, realized that there are times when US words and engagement can be more harmful than beneficial, and because of it, the ability of Khamenei to successfully blame foreign interference has been blunted, not enhanced. That's no mean feat in dealing with a country where "resistance" was the foundational principle of the regime after the Shah's fall.
It's actually been a blazing success,
in which Obama is receiving stellar marks in experienced diplomatic circles, neoconservativism has been shown to be a dead letter in the halls of power (at least for the moment), its adherents and liberal fellow-travellers have been on display for their irrelevance, and America stands as a potential beneficiary of epochal change in Iran if the cards go one way, but with very few chips on the table should they not. A 'coup,' if I may be so bold.
Moreover, what Obama said this week need not necessarily have intersected with, and certainly not predetermined, how the engagement agenda goes forward or is held up (though in point of fact it has interstected, as Obama's central message, contra Rothkopf's misleading account, has been that we are watching and what we see will affect our view of the regime, thus implicitly our relations). That discussion (the state of relations going forward) is obviously a legitimate and necessary one, which I would think should be gotten underway when the new status quo becomes apparent, though obviously David has thoughts on it now. But he is mistaken that our rhetoric around democratic and civil values during the crisis must be of a piece with our diplomatic approach (or decision to refrain from one) afterwards.
Far from stumbling, Obama has in fact looked strong in resisting pressure to escalate rhetoric, or even overreact in concrete ways as we see urged here.
How absurd that this person is taken seriously. He actually thinks that Khamenei would think twice if Obama gave him a stern warning???!!! What's Obama going to do? Send the Rangers in from Iraq?! Rothkopf is a cretin, why anyone would pay him a penny for his insight into anything is baffling, the man's 24 karat dunce.
The truth is that the fuel that is driving what is happening in Iran is generated within Iran. It is building in intensity and potency and will topple Khamenei sooner or later. Any interference beyond what the President has already said would be incredibly foolish. Imagine if McCain were President, Oy!!!
In the meantime Rothkopf needs to check into a retirement home.
I see that Rothkopf used to run Henry K's shop. Did he not hear K's support of Obama's position on Fox News of all places! Again, this man's as dumb as a rock.
It looks like Obama responded with a statement, although he still kept it mostly to criticizing the Iranian government for cracking down on its people.
Embarrassing that Rothkopf is carried here
This is embarrassingly bad advice. Rothkopf seems to have no sense of how poor such a statement of condemnation would go over in Iran, how it would play precisely into the reactionary faction's hand.
How he ever got this gig at FP or any other gig in foreign policy circles is beyond me. Sad because there are people at FP like Lynch and Walt that really know their stuff, and then there is Rothkopf who is neocon light, which is actually worse than being a neocon. The neocons actually know what they want-- they want Obama to condemn the Iranian government precisely because they want to empower Admadinejad. See Daniel Pipes' blog for one example.
What is really astounding in this post is that Rothkopf speaks of "our values" in such a naive and ingenuous way that it takes one's breath away. As if such "values" have not been compromised again and again by US actions like the Iraq invasion or uncritical support of 40 years of Israeli occupation or support of the Saudis and the Mubarak regime or intervention after intervention into the affairs of other countries. Does Rothkopf really think that the average Iranian protester is not aware of these inconsistencies? Does FP really think that its average reader is not aware of such inconsistancies? The last thing those protesters on the street need right now is the support of the US government.
Cut this blogger loose and replace him with someone that actually knows his stuff. Just embarrassing. You could hire any hack at the the UK's Guardian or the UK's Independent and get more for your money.
What an interesting thread here. I'll avoid commenting on whether or not I cut the mustard as a blogger except to say that blogging is not like writing opeds. It is about sharing views even as they evolve, even when they change, as a stimulus to readers own thoughts. Even the hostile ones. Obviously, I'd prefer it everyone thought I was right all the time. Or smart. Or funny when I was trying to be. But all I can offer in the end is my own voice. If people find that interesting, all the better.
As for the comments of the likes of "Madrid" that this post offers stupid advice...well, I'll leave that for others to judge. The recommendations I made here on Friday however, as to the sum and substance of what the Obama Administration could constructively say vis a vis Iran actually track pretty closely with what they have said in the days since, starting with their Saturday statement. They may be wrong too of course. But I thought I would note it...for your consideration.
David Rothkopf is the CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy. His new book, "Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead" is due out from Farrar, Straus & Giroux on March 1.
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