At breakfast this morning a leading Democratic policy
thinker referred to President Obama's recent jaunts to Europe and the Caribbean
as his "global apology tour." This was a
Democratic supporter of the president talking. (And listening.) He winced while
he was saying it and laughed nervously. But the message is clear: it's all well
and good to make nice but these two forays into international diplomacy have to
be viewed purely as scene-setters. Obama set a tone. He checked the "I'm not W"
box. But the deliverables were negligible at best. Die Zeit's Josef Joffe very
smartly explained this point in his weekend Wall Street Journal piece "Obama's
Popularity Doesn't Mean Much Abroad." In it, Joffe wrote:
George W. Bush was heartily disliked in Europe west of
Warsaw, and Mr. Obama is universally loved. But how well does that popularity
translate into power? How far could President Obama push his agenda with, say,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Nicolas Sarkozy? About as
far as you can throw a piano."
Europe
applauded while the flashbulbs popped but beyond promises of a replenishment
for the IMF which may be hard to keep, the policy headlines from the trip were
more about what did not happen than that which did occur either in terms of
global stimulus, in terms of more effective global regulation or in terms of
greater NATO support in AfPak.
The
story was the same in Trinidad.
Obama made a good impression. He offered a "new beginning." He deflected a few
tense moments with what are becoming his signature quips (whether it be the
already tired old saw that he shouldn't be blamed for things that happened when
he was three months old...nowhere nearly as charming as Reagan's self-deprecating
quips about being too old...or commenting on Daniel Ortega's attempt to reclaim
his revolutionary youth by noting snarkily its 50 minute duration).
But
on the deliverables side, he sought to create the impression of change in Cuba
policy by undertaking an incremental adjustment in a policy that's a complete
failure -- kind of the equivalent of proposing that his first step in
addressing GMs problems would be a major rethink of cup-holder designs. And while
it is undeniable that Raul Castro's response was not a complete diss (in fact,
it was somewhat warmer than NATO's response to the requests for more troops or
Europe's response to the request for a global stimulus) in the end all we got
was slight forward progress on something where great progress is eminently
achievable...and long overdue. Want to see a thoughtful suggestion for how to
handle it: go read former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda's op-ed in
today's Wall Street Journal on the
subject. Want to see how opposition to change in Cuba has eroded? See the New York Times article on the new Bendixen study showing that two thirds of Cuban Americans
welcome lifting all travel restrictions to that country and embrace the Obama
thaw in U.S.-Cuba relations.
On
the big issue of the moment, dealing with the global economic downturn, the
Summit of the Americas delivered effectively nothing -- a negligible $100 MM
microfinance program that while worthy, happens to come at a time when the
effectiveness of microfinance is coming under some scrutiny. But big
commitments...replenishment of the IDB's funds, for example...are still "being
studied." Very little but lip service was paid to an issue that is likely to
send 50 million people in the hemisphere back into absolute poverty.
And
so, at the end of the day in Port of Spain, Joffe's observations hold. People
may feel better about Obama than Bush but it is far from a guarantee that will
translate into improved hemispheric actions in any area, even the policy
priorities cited by the meeting.
The
same doubts about the approach arise in the Middle East. Hint at warming up to
Iran? It gets the United States a nice quote from Ahmadinejad saying "We
welcome the U.S. change of policy, provided these changes are fundamental and
essential." But of course, he makes that quote while making a disastrous appearance
at the UN Conference on Racism in which
his attacks on Israel prompted
eight governments to walk out. (You have to wonder both what the UN thought
it was achieving by inviting Ahmadinejad to this conference or what the eight
governments that walked out thought was going to happen at the conference since
it was long ago apparent to anyone with a functioning cortex that the event
would be used as it was. On the other hand, I suppose, the good news is that at
least we had a UN event that delivered what it promised -- they convened a
conference on racism and racism is what they got.)
Wanting
everyone to like us is not a policy, it's a childlike wish. Seeking improved
relations and greater dialogue is undeniably in our interest, but to what end? The
first date with the world is over. It has gone pretty well. Right now
everything is anticipation. But anyone over 18 has lived through this phase and
knows what comes next. And, look at any of the issues at these meetings where
progress was not made and it becomes clear that it ain't gonna be easy. But I
think the challenges go much, much deeper than that in a world in which the old
policy playbooks and ideological standbys are out the window.
JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images
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