
As is often the case, the most important stories are actually
hiding between the lines in the paper, obscured by other news or distorted by
analysts looking left when they should be looking right.
Here are ten examples of stories we're missing or getting
substantially wrong right now:
- We are focused on whether the Obama missive to Medvedev
can actually help contain the Iran threat and thus clear the way to step back
from an East European missile defense. But isn't the reality that Russia was,
is and will continue to be the threat in Eastern Europe, the reason having such
a missile defense continues to make sense? And that they are hard to trust and
continue to be the world's leading nuclear threat, only further implies that
the outcome of this is most likely to be a win-win-lose? Iran cuts a deal from
a too-eager international coalition that let's them continue to slow walk their
nuclear program, they buy time, Russia gets the missile defense taken down and
a conciliatory U.S. as a bonus....and the threat of Iranian nukes and Russian
regional ambitions remain?
In other words, these two key components of
the make nice initiative of the U.S. government may go too far, creating the
illusion of better relations now while masking the deepening of threats in the
long run. - Here in Washington, recent headlines have focused on
Barack Obama's nominee to be U.S. Trade Rep Ron Kirk's tax problems and not on
the considerably more important fact that he has absolutely no meaningful trade
experience, or on the fact that we are in the midst of an economic crisis and
we have no senior appointees in place at Treasury except the Secretary and none
at Commerce or USTR.
- We are focused on the "rise of big government" and miss
the point that private businesses are getting bailed out left and right, often
on very good terms, and that no one is talking about long-term nationalization,
which means that all these funds are actually propping up big business and the
super rich and setting them up to flourish post crisis. Wall Street screws the
world and is bailed out. Detroit screws up and is bailed out. The stimulus
channels hundreds of billions...to private enterprise. Who says government is the
big winner here? Remember, the Obama economic team is almost comprised exclusively
of pro-market guys and adherents to economic orthodoxy. The measures introduced
are all framed as short-term emergency steps. The biggest winners will be the
big companies that survive, adjust and emerge reinvented on the other side.
- There is a natural focus on the negatives associated
with the economic downturn. But recessions are like naturally occurring forest
fires, they cut back the undergrowth. The old model of the daily newspaper is
dead, the work -- covering the ultra local and the national -- is being done
better by other media and so we don't need so many local papers. New models are
emerging and we'll end up with just a few strong national newspaper brands
surviving and still better choices for readers. We don't need scores and scores
of car brands, makes and models, no country has a lock on being a major car
producer, and the industry will be healthier after consolidation. Same with the
cleaning out of the weak in the financial world. The recession is sending us a
message about what can work and where change is needed. It is worth listening
to.
- There's a lot of coverage, particularly in the British
press, about how Gordon Brown got the bum's rush in Washington. No press
conference in front of flags. No
one-on-one with Barack on the basketball court. No Camp David. But the real
story is that while the special relationship remains (they said so over and
over again), it is ever-less important. Britain is pretty nearly a financial
basket case these days and in the context of the European mega market, it is
less influential than either Germany or France and in the context of world
markets, the rise of the emerging powers is coming primarily at the expense of
the influence of Europe and chronically ill Japan. Old alliances are starting
to look their age.
- There is rightfully plenty of concern about the slow
pace of progress on the administration's financial bailout but as big a story
and perhaps a more worrisome one is the slow pace of progress on shaping an
international response to the crisis. The upcoming G20 meeting in London could
be an opportunity for big announcements on issues of reinventing the IMF and
the World Bank, coordinating stimuli, and moving toward greater global
regulatory coordination and enforcement.
But with taking care of business at home dominating every country's
political debate we are likely to get posing, platitudes, and plodding
progress. Yet, much of the undercovered story of this crisis are the risks
created by the explosion of global securitization and derivatives markets -- markets
"worth" hundreds of trillions of dollars that are spidered with invisible
faultlines that could trigger future economic earthquakes.
- On the IMF/World Bank front, according to a story in
today's Wall Street Journal, the IMF
now says that 22 of the world's poorest countries may need $25 billion in
emergency aid this year and, that if things get worse, that as many as 48 poor
countries may need an additional $138 billion in financing. Still, in the same
story, it is noted that the World Bank is having trouble raising just $10
billion to remedy the downturn. In these
countries, the issues aren't unemployment or defaulted mortgages, they are
starvation, epidemics and instability. Economic catastrophes beget social and
political catastrophes. That famed 3 a.m. phone call is likely to be one asking
us to help clean up the mess when it can be ignored no longer.
- With all the focus on market mayhem and dire forecasts,
there hasn't been as much coverage as there might have been (should have been)
on the successful trip of Secretary of State Clinton to the Middle East. Nor was there enough attention given to the
progress that was quickly made toward redefining U.S. policy in the region by
a) engaging actively in the Israel-Palestine issue from the get go, b)
sending an unmistakable message to both sides that it is about two states and
about the Palestinians finding representatives that are not terrorists, c)
making a foray in the direction of Syria, recognizing the interconnectedness of
the issues of the region, and d) stepping up quickly on behalf of the
suffering people of Gaza.
For those who think this is stepping away from Bush-era support of Israel, yes it is. It is stepping away from their combination of
benign neglect and reflexive over-simplification of issues and toward common
sense solutions that are in the interests of Israel and every other country in
the region. - It's not all bad
news. Life just keeps getting better and better for some people. For example take New England Patriot
quarterback Tom Brady. Sure, he was injured in the first half of the first game
last year and had to sit out the season. But not only did the Patriots reward
him for missing the year by trading the young player who filled in for him so
brilliantly that in many cities there would be a quarterback controversy, not
only did the only player with comparable charisma or stats in baseball get lost
in a welter of steroid controversy, but Brady, the movie-star handsome
multi-gajillionaire actually married up, finally making it legal with the woman
who is the best single argument that Brazil belongs in the successor to the G8
and in the UN Security Council to boot, the world's most successful supermodel,
herself worth over $150 million, Giselle Bundchen. So stop your whining and be
happy for them. (Similarly, Britney Spears relaunches her career with her
"Circus" tour, opening in Lousiana. The press focuses on the fact that the
entire extravaganza is lip-synced. But it could be worse. It might not have
been lip-synced. And it could have been
in a town closer to where you live.)
- Of course, given the context of the media coverage of
the past few years, perhaps the biggest "missed" story of them all is the one
that no one except a few partisans who are largely discredited due to their
past positions is willing to acknowledge: While we focus on the pull out from
Iraq, we don't focus enough on whether or not the pull out is even possible.
It doesn't diminish the legitimate critiques of the invasion of Iraq and
its mishandling to note that a very real possibility is emerging that five
years from now Iraq may be one of the more stable, more constructive countries
we deal with in the region, perhaps even still a democracy. What then? It's far
from a sure thing. But it is far more likely today than it was the day before
the invasion. And if we ignore the possibility that it may work out, we will
fail to understand our true options and opportunities as far as a grand
strategy for the region is concerned.
Stay
cautious, stay deeply dubious if you like, but keep your eyes open. Sometimes even the most misguided undertakings
produce surprisingly positive outcomes.
BERNAT ARMANGUE/AFP/Getty Images
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